Personal-Sector Job Openings Fell Sharply in August

The most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals the entire variety of job openings within the economic system dropped to 10.053 million in August, down from 11.170 million in July.

The variety of open positions within the non-public sector decreased to 9.037 million in August, down from 10.065 million in July. August was the fourth decline within the final 5 months and the bottom degree since June 2021 (see first chart).

The whole job openings fee, openings divided by the sum of jobs plus openings, fell to six.2 p.c in August from 6.8 p.c in July whereas the private-sector job-openings fee fell to six.5 p.c from 7.2 p.c within the earlier month (see first chart). The August end result for the non-public sector is the bottom since April 2021.

The industries with the best openings are schooling and well being care (1.885 million), skilled and enterprise providers (1.872 million), commerce, transportation, and utilities (1.638 million), and leisure and hospitality (1.405 million). The very best openings charges have been in leisure and hospitality (8.2 p.c), skilled and enterprise providers (7.7 p.c), and schooling and well being care (7.1 p.c).

The variety of private-sector quits ticked larger in August, coming in at 3.937 million, up from 3.850 million in July (see second chart). Leisure and hospitality led with 956,000 quits adopted by commerce, transportation, and utilities with 867,000 quits, and by skilled and enterprise providers with 682,000.

The private-sector quits fee held at 3.0 p.c in August. The private-sector quits charges for the final two months are the bottom since Might 2021 and 0.4 proportion factors under the file excessive of three.4 p.c in November 2021 (see second chart).

Personal-sector layoffs and discharges elevated within the newest month, rising to 1.375 million, up from 1.317 million in July. The development in layoffs and discharges could also be larger since hitting a low of 1.183 million in December 2021 (see third chart). The private-sector layoffs and discharge fee additionally rose in August, coming in at 1.1 p.c, the best since September 2021 (see third chart).

The variety of job seekers (unemployed plus these not within the labor pressure however who need a job) per opening ticked up barely in August, rising to 1.137 in August from 0.954 in July (a file low). Earlier than the lockdown recession, the low was 1.409 in October 2019 (see fourth chart).

At present’s job openings knowledge present further proof suggesting the economic system is weakening. Whereas the low variety of obtainable staff per opening implies the labor market stays tight, the deterioration on the margin is a warning signal. Warning is warranted.

Robert Hughes

Bob Hughes

Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following greater than 25 years in financial and monetary markets analysis on Wall Road. Bob was previously the pinnacle of World Fairness Technique for Brown Brothers Harriman, the place he developed fairness funding technique combining top-down macro evaluation with bottom-up fundamentals.

Previous to BBH, Bob was a Senior Fairness Strategist for State Road World Markets, Senior Financial Strategist with Prudential Fairness Group and Senior Economist and Monetary Markets Analyst for Citicorp Funding Companies. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham College and a BS in enterprise from Lehigh College.

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